Alan R. Weiss Alan Weiss is Chairman and CTO of ECL, LLC, (EEMBC Certification Laboratories and the Embedded Computing Labs), Chairman of the Ceres Project, coordinator of the Ares Alliance, an elected Libertarian public official suing the city of Austin, husband of one, father of three. CLICK HERE FOR RATIONAL REVIEW NEWS DIGEST SUPPORT OUR
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They're not here,
and they're not coming This morning, my lovely bride of nearly 20 years, Jane, brought up that most scary of discussion items: retirement. Actually, she really wanted to discuss "us," and the good news is that there will BE an "us." As in love with me now as when we first got married, Jane wanted some love, attention, and conversation. A pleasant Sunday morning thus passed swimming in our pool under the hot Texas sun, discussing "us." And now the scary part: unless we mend our ways, cut back on our lifestyle, start saving far more than we have, and get out of debt, there's not going to BE any retirement. Coming on the heels of my discussions with my bookkeeper (I own my own business, which really means my customers own me), I was more than receptive to her analysis: we're not saving very much, and times are hard. We both agreed to formulate a moderately radical plan: close the main office (expensive class A rent, that office is. Should save nearly $25,000 a year on that alone), move back to a home office, start watching the cost of sales and eliminate at least one job. It's sad. I'm going to miss that employee. But we need to save for our future. Discuss this
column at I've been saying for a long time that this recession is far more serious than we know. Don Henley of the Eagles penned a song entitled, "They're Not Here, and They're Not Coming," a great rock song about how aliens don't really exist. Well, JOB CREATION doesn't really exist in this economy. Given the exportation of huge numbers of low, medium, and high technology jobs overseas combined with productivity increases in the 1990's, those jobs are not coming back. "They're not here, and they're not coming." Then I remembered this little nugget of joy: each American owes nearly $90,000 because the Federal Government can't seem to stop spending money it doesn't have. So I did what I usually do when that tightness in the pit of my stomach hits me hard, the kind of bowel-wrenching gnaw of doubt, uncertainty, the threat of poverty: I went to the local want ads. Now, I'm not actually looking for a job. I'm looking for volume, for the number of jobs open in various fields. THAT is the only barometer I need to tell the state of the economy. Big mistake, because right on the front page of the Austin American-Statesman Job Ads section were two articles that basically said what I have been saying: they're not here, and they're not coming. "They," of course, being good jobs. The want ads themselves were thin indeed. Austin used to have at least 18 pages of want ads, chock full of engineering, computer, and information technology positions. That section is about 1/4th of one page now, and no big company is running any ads whatsoever. None. Not IBM, not Motorola, not AMD, not Applied Material, not Dell, not Compaq, NONE of the biggies in Austin are hiring. They're not here, and they're not coming. Then something hit me even harder: I have it relatively good, because I own a business and business hasn't entirely collapsed (its actually been fairly constant for the past three years). What about those poor souls who have been out of work for a month, 3 months, 6 months, a year or more? I KNOW some of these people. Former VP's of Engineering at sophisticated, leading-edge semiconductor companies. Former Directors, senior managers, senior engineering and computer science staff with records of real success, with real talent. I felt scared -- for them. I am no better than them, except that 5 years ago I realized there WAS no security in this globalized economy. I took the bull by the horns, scared as hell, but also determined to not be one of those poor souls laid off for no damn good reason except some OTHER senior manager made a series of mistakes -- including outsourcing the business to China, India, Russia or Bangladesh. I'm glad I did. I hope you consider doing the same. Those computer, information technology, engineering jobs are NOT coming back. We are going to have to invent our next future. We are like car workers in Detroit in the mid-1970's. We are like electronics workers before 1984. Before the personal computer was invented. Before -- all this -- was created, the very high resolution color CRT screen you're staring at was invented. We must -- MUST -- start inventing our new futures right now. We spend so much time worrying about conspiracy theories, causation analysis, railing against the erosion of our liberties. We're right to do so. But in all our rantings, screeds and analysis, let us also take time to think about who we are. WE are the individuals who believe in Adam Smith, the free market, supply and demand, satisfying customers. Lets all think of what people need, want, and will exchange those nonsensical little green slips of paper for. Then lets work to provide what they need and want. Let us grow, not rich, but maybe the right to sleep well at night. Let us grow the peace of mind of a steady income. It is hard to work on freedom and liberty when you're really concerned about feeding your family. By extension, our message of LIBERTY will not be received unless we SOLVE PROBLEMS, specifically the main problem keeping adult men and women awake at nights in North America: getting a good job, and making sure our kids will have a good job. In Part II of this article, I will try to explore what I believe are the real business opportunities of the next 5 or 10 years (not some "global trends" silliness, but real opportunities) and how expanding into those areas may solve problems. |
