“A swine flu epidemic would cost the UK economy almost £50bn, according to one of the nation’s most respected groups of economic forecasters, the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, which uses the Treasury’s economic model to produce its forecast. … The ITEM Club’s forecast points to the H1N1 virus as a significant risk to recovery, especially as a pandemic would, be definition, affect all the major economies …. The economists say that swine flu would affect the economy in several ways: ‘Assuming that the death rate remains low, the main effect on the supply side will be that sick employees cannot go to work. On the demand side, spending on discretionary goods and services such as restaurants or tourism is likely to fall as people stay away from public places to avoid infection. Uncertainty about these developments is likely to make businesses further postpone investment projects. Even without an epidemic, the outlook remains grim.’” (07/19/09)